On Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 8:00 PM EST, the Arizona State Sun Devils will step onto the frozen turf of Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado, to face the struggling Colorado Buffaloes in what may be the most consequential game of the season for both teams. With Arizona State sitting at 7-3 overall and Colorado at 3-7, this isn’t just another Pac-12 matchup—it’s a battle for dignity, momentum, and postseason life. The Sun Devils are 7-point favorites, a line that reflects more than just record—it reflects urgency.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Stats Suggest
Arizona State needs one more win to guarantee bowl eligibility, something they haven’t locked up since 2021. At 7-3, they’re on the cusp of a sixth consecutive winning season—a streak that would silence critics who questioned their program’s direction after a rocky 2023 campaign. But it’s not just about the win. It’s about proving they can close out games against conference rivals who fight harder than their records show. Colorado, meanwhile, is fighting to avoid a losing season for the first time since 2020. At 3-7, they’ve been outscored by an average of 12.3 points per game. Their offense has shown flashes—especially in the red zone, where they convert 90% of trips into touchdowns—but their defense has collapsed under pressure. They’ve allowed 30+ points in six of their last seven games. This isn’t just about pride. It’s about recruiting. A 4-8 finish could derail coaching stability and make next year’s rebuild even harder.The Numbers Behind the Spread
Oddsmakers have set the line at Arizona State -7, with moneyline odds of -275 for the Sun Devils and +220 for the Buffaloes. That -275 implies a 73.3% chance of an Arizona State win—a number that feels almost too generous given Colorado’s home-field advantage. But Folsom Field, which has hosted Colorado since 1924 and holds 53,613 fans, rarely silences its crowd when the Buffaloes are desperate. Still, Arizona State’s offense, averaging 5.1 yards per play and converting 35.66% of third downs, has more consistent firepower. Colorado’s efficiency metrics are startling. They complete 60.07% of passes—the best in the Pac-12 this season—and score on 90% of red zone possessions. That’s elite. But they’ve faced weaker defenses. Arizona State’s defense, while not dominant, has held four of their last six opponents under 24 points. The key? Stopping Colorado’s short passing game. If the Sun Devils can force third-and-long, they’ll expose the Buffaloes’ shaky offensive line. The over/under is 47.5, with the over at -115. Projections from Team Rankings show Arizona State scoring 27.2 points to Colorado’s 20.2. That’s a 7-point margin—exactly the spread. It suggests the market believes Arizona State will win, but not dominate. And that’s the tension here: Can Colorado’s red zone magic make this closer than expected? Or will Arizona State’s balance—running on 53% of snaps—wear down a tired Buffaloes defense?
History, Atmosphere, and What’s at Stake
These two teams have met 19 times since 1975, with Arizona State holding a 12-7 edge. But recent history is messy. In 2023, Colorado stunned ASU 31-28 in Tempe on a last-second field goal. That loss derailed the Sun Devils’ playoff hopes. This year, they’re not letting that happen again. Folsom Field will be loud. The altitude—5,430 feet above sea level—saps energy, especially for visiting teams unfamiliar with the thin air. Arizona State hasn’t played here since 2021, when they won 38-21. But that was a different Colorado team. This one has heart. They’ve lost five games by seven points or fewer. They’re not done.What’s Next?
If Arizona State wins, they’ll likely land a mid-tier bowl—possibly the Holiday Bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl—depending on other conference results. A loss? They’re still eligible, but their seeding drops, and questions about their ability to close out games will linger into the offseason. For Colorado, a win would make them 4-7, keeping their bowl hopes alive mathematically. But with no other wins on the horizon, they’d need a miracle from another team’s loss to qualify. More realistically, a win here gives them momentum for 2026. A loss? It could mean the end for head coach Karl Dorrell, whose contract expires after this season.
Key Matchup to Watch
Arizona State QB Jayden de Laura vs. Colorado’s secondary. De Laura has thrown 18 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions this season. Colorado’s pass defense ranks 11th in the Pac-12, allowing 247 yards per game through the air. If de Laura finds his rhythm early, this game could be over by halftime. On the flip side, Colorado’s QB Logan Gray has shown poise under pressure. If he can avoid turnovers and hit his tight ends on crossing routes, the Buffaloes can keep it close. But they need to score early. Falling behind by two touchdowns at Folsom Field is a death sentence.The game will air on ESPN, as is standard for Pac-12 prime-time matchups. But even if you’re not watching, the implications ripple far beyond the scoreboard. For Arizona State, it’s about legacy. For Colorado, it’s about survival.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does bowl eligibility work for Arizona State and Colorado this season?
Arizona State needs just one more win to become bowl-eligible, as they’re already at 7-3. Teams require six wins to qualify for postseason play. Colorado, at 3-7, needs to win this game and then hope for a waiver or a tiebreaker from another team’s loss to reach six wins—something extremely unlikely. A win here keeps their season alive, but a loss ends any realistic bowl chance.
Why is the spread set at -7 when Arizona State’s projected score is only 7 points higher?
The spread reflects market balance, not just projection. Oddsmakers know Colorado is dangerous in the red zone and plays hard at home. A 7-point line keeps betting action even. If the projection were 30-20, the line might be -10. But since both teams’ offenses are inconsistent, the line stays tight to encourage bets on both sides, ensuring sportsbooks minimize risk.
Has Colorado ever covered the spread as a double-digit underdog at home?
Yes. In 2022, Colorado was a 14-point underdog against Oregon and covered with a 38-35 loss. They’ve covered as underdogs of 7+ points in four of their last nine games, including three wins. Their ability to stay competitive in close games makes them a dangerous bet, even when the odds seem overwhelming. That’s why the line is only -7 despite Arizona State’s better record.
What’s the impact of altitude on Arizona State’s performance?
Folsom Field sits at 5,430 feet, which can reduce aerobic capacity by up to 15% for unacclimated players. Arizona State, from Tempe at 1,000 feet, hasn’t played at altitude since 2021. Their conditioning staff has prepared them with altitude simulations, but fatigue could set in during the fourth quarter—especially if the game is close. Colorado’s players, mostly from the region, are used to it. That edge could be the difference in a tight game.
Could this be the last time these teams play as Pac-12 rivals?
Almost certainly. The Pac-12 is dissolving after the 2025 season, with Arizona State and Colorado both joining the Big 12 in 2026. This game could be the final regular-season meeting between them as conference foes. That adds emotional weight. Fans on both sides know they may never see this rivalry again—making it a rare, bittersweet moment in college football history.
What does this game mean for coaching futures?
Arizona State’s Herm Edwards is under mild pressure but has a contract through 2027. A win here solidifies his standing. For Colorado’s Karl Dorrell, a loss would likely end his tenure. His contract expires in January, and athletic director Rick George has hinted at a reboot. A win, even in a losing season, could buy him one more year to rebuild. This game isn’t just about wins—it’s about jobs.
